Sequence-of-Returns Risk · For Dummies

The risk isn't a bad market.
It's a bad market when the IRS is forcing you to sell.

Plain-English explainer. No annuity pitch. Real historical data. The fix is unusually clean once you see the problem clearly.

By Hans Goldstein · Hans Goldstein · 213-414-2808

Every retiree with a traditional IRA faces a single, brutal mechanical risk: at age 73 the IRS forces you to start pulling money out — every year, no exceptions, even in years when the market just gave up 30%. Those are the years that statistically destroy retirements. Not the bad markets themselves. The bad markets when you have no choice but to sell at the bottom to pay your RMD.

The whole thing in 30 seconds
  1. Once you turn 73, the IRS forces you to pull money out of your IRA every year. No exceptions, even if the market crashed that year.
  2. If you're forced to sell stocks during a crash, you're selling at the bottom. Those shares are gone forever — when the market recovers, you'll never own them again.
  3. The fix: set aside a small "rainy day pile" of guaranteed money called a MYGA (basically a CD from an insurance company that pays 5-6%). In crash years, you pull from the rainy day pile. In good years, you pull from stocks.
  4. That's it. You're done. The rest of this article shows you the proof, the math, the carriers that sell this, and how to actually buy one.
Three terms to know before you read further
RMD
Required Minimum Distribution. The amount the IRS forces you to withdraw from your traditional IRA every year starting at age 73 (or 75 if born after 1959). It's taxable income whether you spend it or not. Usually around $80K/year on a $2M IRA.
MYGA
Multi-Year Guaranteed Annuity. A fixed-rate contract from an insurance company — basically a CD on steroids. You give them a lump sum, they guarantee a fixed rate (currently 5-6%) for a fixed term (3-10 years). No market risk, no rate changes during the term.
Aggregation
An IRS rule that lets you calculate the RMD on all your IRAs combined, then take that total RMD from ANY single IRA (or any combination). This is the rule that makes the whole strategy possible.
In plain English

Imagine it like a kitchen pantry.

You have an IRA — your retirement savings. Starting at age 73, the government forces you to pull out a percentage of it every year. About 4% at age 73, growing to 6%+ by your mid-80s. Doesn't matter how big or small your IRA is — the rule is the same percentage, and you HAVE to follow it.

That's like being told you have to eat at home one specific night a week, no matter what. If you ALWAYS shop on the day you have to cook, sometimes you'll go shopping during a snowstorm and have to grab whatever's left at the corner store at triple the price. That's "selling your stocks at the bottom to pay your RMD."

The fix: keep a stocked pantry. Set aside about 10-15% of your IRA in a guaranteed-yield "pantry" (a MYGA, earning 5-6%). In a snowstorm year (market crash), you eat from the pantry. The grocery store (your stock portfolio) stays untouched and ready for when prices come back down. The pantry runs out after 2-3 years — you restock if you want, or skip a year. That's it. That's the whole strategy.

Everything below is just the receipts: real historical data, the math, and the carriers who actually do this honestly.

This article walks through the historical evidence (S&P 500, 2000–2024), three actual retiree scenarios using real returns, why MYGAs at today's rates are unusually well-suited to fix this problem, why FIAs are not, and which carriers we've vetted to confirm they honor the aggregation rule that makes the strategy work.

The honest framing up front

I sell annuities. I'm also telling you the case for this strategy doesn't need annuities to be interesting — it needs a guaranteed, non-correlated income source you can drain in down years. MYGAs happen to be the cleanest version of that available right now. If T-bills or short bonds were yielding 6%, the same logic would point there. The point is the sequence, not the product.

The whole concept in 60 seconds

Sequence of Returns Risk, explained like you're 12.

Two retirees. Both average 7% per year over 25 years. Both pull out the same percentage every year (the RMD — about 4% at age 73, growing to 6%+ later). Same starting balance. They should end up the same, right?

Wrong. Watch what happens depending on when the bad years hit:

Retiree A — bad years at the START. Year 1 his portfolio drops 30%. He's still pulling out 4% — but now it's 4% of a much smaller pie. The IRS doesn't pause RMDs because markets are bad. Year 2 same thing. By year 5 he's so far down that even when the recovery years come, the percentages he keeps pulling out keep shrinking the recovery. By year 20 he's broke.

Retiree B — bad years at the END. Years 1-20 are all up. He's pulling 4% from a steadily growing pile every year. By year 21 his portfolio has compounded into a much bigger number. Then the bad years hit. But by then he's already taken out 20 years of withdrawals from a healthy portfolio. The crash at the end barely matters. He dies wealthy.

Same 7% average. Same withdrawal percentage. Wildly different lives. The difference: the bad years hit Retiree A while he was being FORCED to sell. The percentage RMD doesn't protect him — it just shrinks along with his portfolio while he keeps draining it. That's sequence-of-returns risk.

You can't pick when the bad years happen. But you CAN make sure you're not forced to sell during them. That's what this whole strategy is.

When forced to sell at the bottom, you get 70 cents on the dollar
Normal year: sell 100 shares at $1.00 each for your $100 RMD. Crash year (-30%): same RMD, but each share is only worth $0.70 — so you have to sell 143 shares. Those 43 extra shares are gone forever; when the market recovers, you'll never own them again.

OK so how does the MYGA actually solve this? (The "two-bucket" picture)

This is the visual that flips people from "wait, is this a scam?" to "oh, that's actually obvious." Two scenarios, side-by-side: a bad market year and a good market year. The MYGA is the safe bucket. The stocks are the growth bucket. The strategy is simply: pull your RMD from the bucket that hurts least.

MYGA as RMD Insurance — The Smart RMD Valve
Left (bad year): market drops 10%. Pull the RMD from the MYGA bucket — stocks stay invested for the recovery. You DON'T sell at the bottom. Right (good year): market up 10%. Pull the RMD from stocks — locks in some gains. MYGA keeps compounding at 5.85% guaranteed. That's the whole "valve" — you choose which bucket gets drained based on what the market did. No magic. No scam. Just a guaranteed bucket sitting next to a market bucket, and you pick.

"But wait — isn't this just an annuity by another name?"

Honest answer: yes, it's an annuity. Specifically a MYGA — Multi-Year Guaranteed Annuity. The reason it doesn't feel like a typical annuity sales pitch is because we're not asking you to put your whole IRA in it. We're asking you to put 10-15% of it in a 3-5 year contract. That's a small, defined slice of your portfolio, locked at a guaranteed rate for a known term, doing one specific job: sitting there ready for the crash years. The other 85-90% of your money stays in the market exactly where it is.

If someone tries to sell you a "MYGA RMD insurance" product where you put 100% of your IRA in, run. That's not what this strategy is. The strategy is a slice — a small bucket alongside your normal portfolio — and the rest of this article shows exactly how big that slice should be for your situation.

"But my RMD is just a percentage — if my IRA drops, my RMD drops too. So what?"

This is the most common (and most wrong) objection. Here's why the percentage doesn't save you:

Normal year: $1M IRA × 4% = $40K RMD. Sell 40 shares at $1.00 each. ✓

Crash year (-25%): $750K IRA × 4% = $30K RMD. Sell same 40 shares, but at $0.75 each. You get $30K cash. Those shares are gone.

Market recovers. Those 40 shares you sold during the crash would have been worth $40K. You sold them for $30K. $10K of "would-have-been" value lost forever — per RMD year you do this. Repeat 3-4 times in a 15-year retirement and that's $30-60K of permanent compound loss on a $1M IRA. Bigger IRA = bigger loss.

The MYGA fix in one sentence: the MYGA balance doesn't compress. Pull RMD from there in crash years, leave the depressed shares to ride out the recovery. You want the MYGA there for the years your RMD looks smaller, not bigger.

1.Will you hit a down year during retirement?

Yes. Almost certainly.

Historical S&P 500 base rate: roughly 25% of all years are negative. Across a 15-year retirement, the probability of hitting at least one down year compounds to ~99%. Across 25 years, it's 99.9%. In other words: planning your RMD sourcing around the assumption that markets cooperate is planning around a 1% outcome.

Historical down-year base rate
~25%
of all years since 1928 (S&P 500)
Chance of ≥1 down year in 15
~99%
(1 - 0.75^15)
Expected down years in 15
~3-4
at the historical base rate

How big are these down years typically?

This is the part that matters for the strategy. Not every down year is a 2008 disaster. But corrections big enough to force ugly RMD timing are far more common than retirees expect:

Chance of ≥1 correction (-10%+) in 15 yrs
~92%
corrections occur every ~1.5-2 yrs on avg
Chance of ≥1 bear market (-20%+) in 15 yrs
~70%
bear markets occur every ~3.5-5 yrs on avg
Chance of ≥1 crash (-30%+) in 15 yrs
~35%
2000, 2008, 2020 (briefly), 2022 came close

Last 25 years specifically (2000–2024):

Bottom line: across a 15-year retirement, you should plan around 2-4 sharp drawdowns as the base case. Pretending otherwise is the planning error.

Here's the actual sequence over the last 25 years — the chart that should be on every retiree's wall:

S&P 500 annual returns 2000-2024
S&P 500 total returns by year. Notice the three consecutive negative years opening the millennium — that's the sequence that destroyed retirees who started in 2000.

2.The real example: an age-73 retiree starting in 2000

Let's stop hypothesizing and use actual S&P returns. Imagine you turned 73 on January 1, 2000 with exactly $1 million in your traditional IRA. The IRS forces you to start RMDs. Here's what actually happened, year by year, with and without a small MYGA buffer.

YearAgeS&P ReturnRMD AmountNo MYGAWith $200K MYGA
200073-9.1%$37,700$871K$900K
200275-22.1%$29,800$542K$623K
200881-37.0%$41,500$466K$571K
201588+1.4%$63,800$823K$894K
202497+25.0%$138K$1.07M$1.10M

"Wait, why does the RMD bounce around — up, down, up, down?"

Look at the RMD column: $37K → $29K → $41K → $63K. That's not a mistake. RMD is calculated each year as: prior-year IRA balance × age percentage. So when the market crashed and the IRA balance dropped, the RMD dropped too. When the market recovered, the RMD went back up. The age percentage also keeps climbing (3.77% at 73, 7.30% at 88, 12.82% at 97).

But remember Section 1: the smaller-RMD years are worse, not better. Those $29K of RMD in 2002 came from depressed shares worth 70¢ on the dollar. That's exactly when you want to pull from the MYGA instead.

The honest punchline: the with-MYGA scenario ended at ~$30K more in remaining assets at age 97 — AND took out ~$90K more in cumulative RMDs over the 25 years (because the larger balance during recovery years generated larger RMDs). Total wealth delta: ~$120K on a $1M starting IRA. Roughly 12% better outcome.

What this actually proves: the strategy works — but it's not a magic 10x. It's a meaningful, defensible 10-15% improvement in retirement wealth over the worst sequence in modern market history, with the MYGA preserving the most value in years 2002, 2008, and 2022 (the actual bears). In a more cooperative sequence (like 2014-2024), the gap would be much smaller. The honest framing: this is insurance, not a get-rich strategy.

What about a retiree starting today?

We can't know future returns. But we know the historical base rate: ~25% of years are negative, ~16% drop more than 10%. Across a 15-25 year retirement starting today, you should plan for 3-5 down years and 1-2 sharp bears as the base case. The MYGA strategy gives you the same kind of protection going forward that it gave the 2000 retiree above — sized to whatever your view of the next 3-5 years looks like (see Section 4 for the sizing framework).

The same logic in a 3-5 year window (the tactical version)

Important: nobody holds a MYGA for 25 years. The strategy is tactical — you buy a 3-year or 5-year MYGA when you sense market risk, drain it for RMDs over the term, then decide whether to do it again. Long-term simulations with continuous MYGA holds aren't how this works in practice. So instead of pretending you'd hold one forever, let's look at one specific 5-year window where this strategy would have been worth real money.

Hypothetical retiree: $1M IRA, retired Jan 2000, $40K annual RMD

This was the worst sequence in modern history to start a retirement. Here's what actually happened over the first 5 years (real S&P returns):

Two scenarios, same starting $1M:

Scenario A — no MYGA (100% market): $40K RMDs come out of the equity portfolio every year. Forced to sell stocks at -9%, then -12%, then -22%. By end of 2002, the portfolio is down to about $525K. Even with the 2003-2004 recovery, you end year 5 at roughly $665K. That's a $335K drawdown on a starting $1M.

Scenario B — bought a $200K, 5-year MYGA in Jan 2000: $200K MYGA at 5.5% guaranteed plus $800K in equities. In 2000, 2001, and 2002 (all negative years) you pull the $40K RMD from the MYGA — stocks stay invested. In 2003 and 2004 (positive years) you pull the RMD from the market — MYGA keeps compounding. End of year 5: MYGA ≈ $120K, market ≈ $628K, total ≈ $748K.

Gap at year 5: ~$83K in Scenario B's favor. That's what the strategy bought you in a single 5-year window. The retiree who used the tactical MYGA preserved 12% more of their wealth — and never had to watch their equity sleeve get cut by a third while they were forced to sell during the bear. Across a 15-year retirement with multiple cycles like this, the cumulative protection compounds further.

The chart below shows the actual year-by-year mechanics of the 3-year and 5-year tactical MYGA — how the balance drains, what the interest does, and when the RMDs come out:

4.How much MYGA is "right"?

This matters. Too little MYGA, and the buffer runs dry in a multi-year downturn. Too much, and you give up real equity upside in good years. The sweet spot for most retirees is 10–20% of total IRA balance.

Sizing the MYGA — final portfolio at different allocation percentages
Note: this chart assumes you continuously hold a MYGA at the given percentage allocation across the full 25-year window — rolling into a new contract every 3-5 years as each matures. In practice most retirees use the strategy tactically (buy when worried, drain it, decide whether to roll). The chart still illustrates the sizing trade-off honestly: too little = no protection, too much = giving up equity upside.

Practical rule of thumb: size the MYGA to cover 2-4 years of RMDs. That gives you enough runway to ride through the typical bear-market-to-recovery cycle without ever touching the equity bucket during the drawdown.

5.This is a tactical 3- or 5-year insurance policy — not a long-term holding

One thing to be clear on up front: the MYGA RMD valve is not something you buy and hold forever. It's a short-term insurance policy. You buy a 3-year or 5-year contract when you sense market risk (or just want guaranteed sequence protection for that window), drain it down over the term as you take RMDs, and then decide whether to do it again or step out entirely.

3-year and 5-year tactical MYGA drain
Top panel: a $200K, 3-year MYGA covers 3 RMDs and depletes by maturity. Bottom panel: $300K, 5-year MYGA covers ~5 RMDs. In both cases, the MYGA is the insurance, the equity portfolio is the engine — and the strategy is designed to wrap up cleanly at term-end.

Why structure it this way?

The minimalist version: "Insurance for ONE bad year" (smallest possible bet)

The simplest, cheapest version of this strategy: buy a 3-year MYGA equal to about 4-5% of your total IRA — roughly one year's worth of forced withdrawals at current ages. Not a precise dollar figure (RMDs change every year), just a "one bad year's worth of liquidity" rule of thumb.

The logic: across any 3-year window, there's about a 58% chance at least one of those years is a market down year (using the ~25% historical base rate). You're betting that at least one of those 3 years will be a bear, and you want to be insured for that one year. When the bad year hits, you drain the MYGA balance to satisfy that year's RMD — penalty-free under the RMD-friendly provision. Your equity portfolio doesn't get touched in the down year.

How the 3 years play out on a $1M IRA with a ~$45K MYGA at 5.85% (bad year hits in Year 1):

If no bad year hits in 3 years (~42% chance): you let the MYGA mature at 17.5% growth over the term (5.85% compounded for 3 years). You haven't lost anything — you earned guaranteed yield on a small slice while your stocks did whatever they did. Then you decide whether to roll it.

Why this version is appealing

You're committing the smallest possible chunk ($80K, or whatever your single RMD is) for the shortest reasonable term (3 years). The "cost" of the insurance is essentially the opportunity cost vs. holding that $80K in stocks — but stocks haven't outperformed 5.85% over every 3-year window historically. And in the years a bear hits, the MYGA pays for itself by sparing you the share-math above. It's the cheapest "I'm worried about a bear in the next 3 years" insurance policy you can write.

What's a "year's worth of RMD" — by age

Your RMD as a percent of your IRA grows every year because the IRS divisor shrinks as you age. Use this to size your MYGA — multiply your IRA balance × your age's percentage:

Instead of a fake $2M example, here's what your forced RMDs would have actually looked like if you turned 73 on Jan 1, 2000 with a $1M IRA and held 100% in S&P 500. Each year the IRS divisor shrinks (so RMD % grows), AND the balance moves with the market — the dollar amount jumps around because of both forces:

YearAgeDivisorRMD %Prior BalanceRMD $S&P
20007326.53.77%$1,000,000$37,700-9.1%
20017425.53.92%$871,000$34,200-11.9%
20027524.64.07%$733,000$29,800-22.1%
20037623.74.22%$541,000$22,800+28.7%
20047722.94.37%$674,000$29,400+10.9%
20057822.04.55%$718,000$32,600+4.9%
20067921.14.74%$720,000$34,200+15.8%
20078020.24.95%$800,000$39,600+5.5%
20088119.45.15%$804,000$41,500-37.0%
20098218.55.41%$466,000$25,200+26.5%
20108317.75.65%$564,000$31,800+15.1%
20118416.85.95%$617,000$36,700+2.1%
20128516.06.25%$593,000$37,100+16.0%

Look at the RMD column. It went from $37K → $34K → $29K → $22K → $29K → $32K → $34K → $39K → $41K → $25K → $31K → $36K → $37K. Not a steady ramp. It dipped HARD in years like 2003 ($22K) because the prior-year balance was wrecked. Those small-RMD years aren't "good" — they're the compressed-dollar trap we showed in Section 1. The MYGA strategy is exactly what handles them.

Your numbers in 5 seconds

Plug in your IRA balance and age — see your actual RMD & suggested MYGA size.

Your forced RMD this year:
$40,650 (4.07% of IRA)
Suggested MYGA size (≈10% of IRA):
$100,000 covers ~2-3 RMD years
"Insurance for one bad year" (≈5% of IRA):
$50,000 smallest viable bet
Run the full calculator →

Size YOUR MYGA based on YOUR view of the next 3 years

This is the part that makes the strategy personal. You don't have to predict the market. You just have to answer one question: How many bad years do you think are likely in the next 3?

Here's the historical base rate (using a 25% per-year down rate, like the long-run S&P):

"I think there's about a 50% chance of at least 1 bad year in the next 3."
Actual historical odds: 58%
→ Cover ONE RMD. Buy a 3-year MYGA equal to one year's RMD (~$80K on $2M). Cheapest policy. Drain it the one bad year. Mature with cash if no bear hits.
"I think there's about a 30% chance 2 of the next 3 years are bad."
Actual historical odds: ~16% (less common, but real)
→ Cover TWO RMDs. Buy a 3-year MYGA equal to about two years' RMDs (~$160K). Drains across both bad years; if only one hits, you have buffer left at maturity.
"I think a multi-year sustained bear is coming — 2008-style or 2000-2002-style."
Historical occurrence: roughly once every 8-12 years
→ Cover 3-5 RMDs across a 5-year MYGA. ~$240-400K on $2M. This is the maximum-protection version. The MYGA covers your forced withdrawals through the whole down sequence; your equity portfolio rides out the recovery untouched.
"I think the market is fine and rates will stay good — I just want guaranteed yield."
No probability required — this is just preference
→ Size doesn't matter — pick by yield preference. A MYGA in this case is just a fixed-income holding paying 5-6% guaranteed. You happen to also have the RMD waiver as a free bonus. No "insurance" framing needed — you're just buying bond replacement.

The point: you reverse-engineer the size from your own conviction about the next 3-year market window. There's no "right" answer — the math works at every size. Pick the bet you actually believe.

If it makes sense, stop reading and call

That's the whole strategy in plain English.

If what you've read so far makes sense and you want me to size yours, that's the entire conversation. Free MYGA quote, shopped across 6 A-rated carriers, sized to your actual IRA. No commitment. If I can't show you at least $50K of protection value, I'll tell you it's not worth doing.

Want the technical why & how? Keep reading.

Everything below is the deeper substance — why MYGAs beat bonds and conservative stocks, why rates are at multi-decade highs right now, the specific contract language you need from carriers, and the step-by-step playbook for actually buying one. Read it if you want to be the smartest person in the room when you decide. Skip it if you're already sold.

6.What happens when the term ends — and how to "shop" your money to the next carrier tax-free

At the maturity date of your MYGA, the surrender-charge period ends. You have full liquidity on whatever balance remains, and three real options:

Option A — Take the cash

The contract pays you out. If the MYGA is inside an IRA, the proceeds stay inside your IRA (no taxable event — it just becomes cash within the IRA, ready to be redeployed however you want). If it's a non-qualified MYGA outside an IRA, the gains become taxable as ordinary income that year. For our RMD strategy, the MYGA is almost always inside the IRA, so cash-out has no tax friction.

Option B — Renew with the same carrier at their new rate

The carrier will offer you a renewal rate at maturity. This is usually lower than your original rate (they'd rather not pay you the original premium rate forever). You can accept the renewal, but it's almost never the best deal available — the carrier knows it's easier for you to stay than to move. Convenient, but rarely competitive.

Option C — Shop the market and exchange (the smart play)

This is what most retirees should default to. At maturity, you exchange your matured MYGA into a NEW MYGA at whichever carrier has the best rate at that time — with zero tax friction.

Why this matters — rates move

MYGA rates change with the bond market. The 5.85% you locked today might be 4.5% in three years (rates compressing) or 6.5% in three years (rates climbing). Either way, at maturity you should shop ALL the A-rated carriers and pick the best rate available — not just default to whatever your current carrier is renewing at. We re-shop on every client at every maturity, because the difference between renewal rate and best-available rate often runs 0.5-1.5%.

The clean re-evaluation moment

At each term end, you have three real decisions to make, all clean:

  1. Do I still feel the sequence-risk concern? If yes → exchange into another MYGA. If no → take the cash inside the IRA and redeploy to equities or bonds.
  2. What are current MYGA rates? Shop all the A-rated carriers (we do this for our clients automatically). Pick the highest-rated contract at the best rate.
  3. How long should the next term be? Match the new term to your next risk window. 3 years if you want flexibility, 5 if you want to lock in rates longer, 7-10 if you're confident in current rates and want maximum guarantee duration.
Calculator

Run your own numbers

Try the MYGA RMD insurance calculator with your IRA balance, age, and the amount you'd anchor in a guaranteed bucket. See your year-by-year mechanics + the cost of getting it wrong over 15 years.

Run the calculator → Or call · 213-414-2808

7.Why a MYGA, not an "FIA" (the more complicated annuity cousin), for this job?

What's an FIA? A Fixed Indexed Annuity is a different kind of annuity that ties your return to a stock-market index (like the S&P 500) with caps, floors, and participation rates. Sounds appealing — upside without downside, right? In practice it's complex, the caps are often low, and the return is unpredictable. Useful for some retirees in some situations, but the wrong tool for RMD insurance specifically. Here's why:

FeatureMYGAFIA
Stated rate 5.4–6.0% guaranteed 0–7% indexed (capped)
Rate certainty Locked at issue Depends on index performance + caps + spreads
Predictable for RMD math Yes — you know exactly what you'll have No — depends on years of market behavior
Liquidity for RMDs Most allow penalty-free aggregate RMD withdrawals Often capped at 10%/yr
Complexity Simple — like a CD Caps, floors, participation rates, spreads, segment terms
Best for RMD insurance, bond-replacement, known cash needs Long-horizon growth with downside protection

For RMD insurance specifically, the MYGA wins on every dimension that matters: you need a predictable, guaranteed, known-rate bucket to pull from in down years. FIA returns depend on which years the index delivers — which is exactly the variable you're trying to neutralize.

The honest exception: if MYGA rates were 2.5% (like they were 2018-2021), the FIA's potential upside might be worth the complexity. At today's 5.4-6.0% MYGA rates, that case is hard to make.

"Why not just hold conservative stocks?"

Fair question. Lots of retirees keep a slice of "conservative" or defensive stocks (utilities, consumer staples, dividend payers) as their "safe" allocation. You should probably keep some — they pay dividends, they grow, they're a legit part of a retirement portfolio.

But here's the difference that matters for RMD insurance:

Conservative stocks
  • No contract — nobody signed anything saying they'll hold value
  • No guarantee — utilities dropped 30% in 2022 alongside everything else
  • Still drop in real bears — defensive sectors typically lose 15-25% in major crashes
  • "Expected" to be safer ≠ "promised" to be safer
MYGA
  • You sign a contract — the carrier is legally bound
  • Rate is GUARANTEED — 5.5-6.0% locked at issue, no matter what happens
  • Cannot drop in value — there's no market price; it's a contractual balance
  • You know exactly what you're getting — for the entire term

"Contract" is the positive word. It means you know what you're getting. It means somebody is on the hook to deliver. It means no surprises. Every other "safe" asset on a retiree's balance sheet — bonds, dividend stocks, defensive sectors, REITs — is just an expectation. A MYGA is a promise.

The pitch isn't "ditch your conservative stocks for a MYGA" — you should probably keep your dividend payers and your utilities. The pitch is: "for the slice of your portfolio that ABSOLUTELY CANNOT drop because you need it to fund a forced RMD in a down year, use the only retirement vehicle that's contractually guaranteed."

"But can't I just use bonds?" — two birds with one stone

Fair question. Bonds CAN technically satisfy RMDs — anything inside your IRA can. The mechanics are: you sell some bonds, the cash funds the RMD, the rest of the bond portfolio sits there. So yes, bonds work.

But here's why MYGAs at today's rates are two birds with one stone compared to bonds:

The summary: MYGAs at 5-6% deliver the yield bonds aim for, with contract guarantees bonds can't match, AND a designated RMD-friendly provision. Bonds work; MYGAs work better for this specific job at today's rates.

8.Why are MYGA rates so high right now?

This is a Federal Reserve story, and understanding it tells you both why to act and roughly how long the window stays open.

The bond-yield backstory

An insurance carrier doesn't pay MYGA holders out of thin air. They take your premium, invest it in their general account — overwhelmingly in investment-grade corporate and government bonds — and pay you a spread off the yield. So the MYGA rate they can credibly offer tracks bond yields, with about 3–9 months of lag.

The path from 2021 to now:

Why the window probably doesn't last

The Fed is signaling rate cuts. Each 0.25% cut filters through the bond market within a couple months, and MYGA rates follow within 3–9 months. When the 10-year Treasury drops back to 3%, MYGA rates settle back to the high 3s / low 4s, where they sat for most of the last decade.

This isn't a "buy now or miss forever" pitch. It's a real description of how the product is priced. The 5.4–6.0% rates available today are a function of an unusual interest-rate environment, and they will compress as that environment normalizes.

Why this matters for the RMD strategy specifically

Locking a 5-year MYGA at today's 5.85% means you have guaranteed bond-like yield through ~2030 regardless of what the Fed does. That's the whole sequence-of-returns insurance benefit, with a guaranteed return that beats most conservative bond funds projected over the same period.

9.Important: what "RMD-friendly" actually means

A common misconception (one we've corrected in our own thinking): "RMD-friendly" does not mean you can liquidate the whole MYGA balance in a bad year. It means the carrier waives surrender charges on withdrawals up to your aggregate IRA RMD amount for that year. That's it.

So if you have a $200K MYGA and your aggregate RMD is $80K, you can pull $80K penalty-free that year. You cannot pull $200K penalty-free just because the market crashed. The "use 80%+ in a bad year" version of the strategy only works when the MYGA balance roughly equals your annual RMD (small contracts) or after the MYGA matures (typically 3–10 years out, when full liquidity returns).

The strategy still works year-by-year because:

The ladder approach for multi-year coverage

If you want the strategy to cover RMDs across many bad years — not just one — build a MYGA ladder:

A ladder smooths your liquidity across the entire retirement glide path while keeping the RMD-insurance benefit intact.

10.Not all carriers honor this — here's what to ask for

The strategy depends on the contract honoring an RMD waiver that's broad enough to cover whatever amount you call "your RMD" — and on the carrier's financial strength being solid enough that the guarantees actually mean something 5–10 years from now.

Honest note about the word "aggregate." Insurance carriers don't typically write the word "aggregate" into their contracts. They use broader phrases like "any required minimum distribution" or "the RMD." Whether the carrier honors an aggregate-IRA RMD (the full RMD calculated across all your traditional IRAs, taken from this one contract) is more a matter of standard industry practice + IRS rule than of explicit contract language.

How the language usually looks:

Verified carrier RMD waiver language (we've confirmed these)

Two carriers with publicly documented, explicit RMD waivers that exempt the full RMD amount from surrender charges and market-value adjustments — including amounts above the 10% free withdrawal:

Aspida (Synergy Choice MYGA)

Direct quote from Aspida's product literature:

"After the first 30 days, any required minimum distribution (RMD) will not be subject to withdrawal charges and market value adjustment, including amounts above the 10% free amount."

Contract series ICC22C-MYGA1012 / C-MYGA1012. AM Best: A-.

Oceanview (Harbourview MYGA)

Direct quote from Oceanview's product disclosure:

"Any RMD's taken from your contract, after the first contract year, will not be subject to withdrawal charges. Withdrawal charges will not apply to any free withdrawals, required minimum distributions, or death benefit proceeds."

AM Best: A-. RMD form required (OVLAC-RMD).

Other A-rated carriers worth shopping:

Carrier ratings change. We re-verify the contract language and AM Best rating at the time of every quote. The ones with verified quotes above (Aspida, Oceanview) are the safest starting points if you want documentation in writing before signing.

Where to verify this independently

Don't just take our word. The aggregation rule and the RMD-friendly contract provisions are well-documented. Verify here:

What to ask a carrier or agent

  1. "Is this a CASH VALUE annuity (MYGA) or an INCOME annuity (SPIA/DIA)?" Only cash-value contracts work for the RMD valve strategy — you need an actual accessible balance to draw RMDs from. SPIAs and DIAs convert your money into a fixed stream of payments with no balance, so there's nothing to "pull" in a down year. The payments themselves are the distributions, and the strategy doesn't apply.
  2. "Does this contract allow penalty-free withdrawal of my aggregate IRA RMD, not just the RMD calculated on this contract's balance?"
  3. "Can you point to the specific contract language — and put it in writing?" Ask for a cash-value confirmation letter and the surrender-charge schedule in writing before signing. If they can't or won't, that's your answer.
  4. "What's the surrender charge schedule on dollars above the RMD?" Even with RMD exemption, knowing your normal liquidity matters.
  5. "What's the current AM Best rating?" A- or better is the comfortable line.

Why "cash value" is the critical word

This is the difference between a MYGA and the other annuity types you'll hear pitched. A MYGA has a cash value — a balance you can see, that earns interest, that you can withdraw from. A SPIA or DIA does NOT — you hand over a lump sum and receive a stream of fixed payments for life or a term, with no accessible balance. Income annuities are great tools for guaranteed lifetime income, but they cannot serve as RMD insurance because there's nothing to pull from in a bad market year. Make sure your contract literally says "cash value" or "accumulation value."

11.The playbook — how to actually use this, step by step

If you're sold on the concept and want to execute, here's the no-BS sequence. Print this. Hand it to your advisor. Read it to yourself before you sign anything.

1

Figure out your annual RMD

Take your total traditional IRA balance ÷ the IRS divisor for your age (~26.5 at age 73, ~24.6 at 75, ~20.2 at 80). Or just use our calculator. Example: $2M ÷ 26.5 = $75,500/year.

2

Decide how many years you want covered

3 years = conservative, low commitment, smaller chunk of money tied up. 5 years = balanced, covers a full typical bear-market-to-recovery cycle. Most retirees pick 3 or 5. Almost nobody picks 10.

3

Size the MYGA premium

Multiply your annual RMD × years of coverage. Example: $80K × 3 years = $240K MYGA. Or $80K × 5 = $400K MYGA. That's how big to write the check. (You can size a little smaller and let interest fill the gap, but this is the safe rule of thumb.)

4

Shop A-rated carriers for the best current rate

The big ones for MYGAs right now: Aspida, Oceanview, Athene, MassMutual Ascend, F&G, Americo. Rates change daily. Either work with a broker who shops all of them simultaneously (that's us at 213-414-2808) or call carriers directly.

5

Verify the contract language in writing

Ask the carrier: "Does this contract waive surrender charges on the full aggregate IRA RMD?" Get the answer in writing — usually in the product spec sheet or contract preview. If they hesitate or won't put it in writing, walk to the next carrier.

6

Open the MYGA inside your IRA (not outside)

Do an IRA-to-IRA transfer from your current custodian (Fidelity, Schwab, wherever) directly to the new MYGA carrier. No taxes, no penalties — it's an internal IRA move. The carrier provides the transfer paperwork.

7

Each year, pick which bucket to take your RMD from

This is the actual valve operation:

  • Bad market year? → Pull your full RMD from the MYGA. Stocks stay in for the recovery.
  • Good market year? → Pull your RMD from the market portfolio. Take some gains off the table. MYGA keeps compounding at 5.85%.
8

At maturity, re-evaluate and shop again

End of 3 or 5 years: surrender period over, full liquidity. Three options: (a) take the cash inside your IRA and step out (you're done), (b) renew with the same carrier (rarely the best rate), or (c) shop the market and IRA-transfer to whichever carrier has the best rate now. Option (c) is usually right — re-shop every cycle.

The hidden bonus most retirees miss

This strategy doesn't just protect against bad markets. It also frees you to invest the rest of your portfolio more aggressively. With sequence risk taken off the table for your forced RMD years, you can keep a higher equity allocation in the rest of the IRA — letting it compound longer — knowing you have the safety valve when needed. Many retirees over-bond their portfolios specifically because they're scared of forced selling in down years. Fix that fear, and the whole portfolio can work harder.

🧮 For the nerds — the technical mechanics Tap to expand

If you want the actual code sections, contract language, and math — here it is. Skip if not your thing.

The RMD aggregation rule (IRS Notice 88-38)

The IRS allows owners of multiple traditional IRAs to calculate the RMD on each IRA separately, then take the TOTAL aggregate RMD from any one IRA (or combination). The relevant IRS guidance:

  • Treas. Reg. §1.408-8, Q&A 9 — aggregation rules for IRA RMDs
  • IRS Notice 88-38 — established the aggregation procedure
  • IRS Pub 590-B — the practical reference document

This is why a $80K aggregate RMD can come entirely from a $200K MYGA contract, even if that contract's standalone RMD calculation would have been much smaller (e.g., $8K based on $200K / 25-yr divisor).

How carriers waive the surrender charge for RMDs

"RMD-friendly" is an industry shorthand for a contract provision (usually called the "RMD Waiver" or "Required Distribution Provision") that exempts withdrawals taken to satisfy the IRS RMD from surrender charges. The key contract language variations:

  • Aggregate language (best): "Withdrawals taken to satisfy the Required Minimum Distribution on the Owner's aggregate Traditional IRA balance are exempt from any Withdrawal Charge." This is what you want.
  • Contract-only language (limited): "Withdrawals up to the Required Minimum Distribution calculated on this Contract's Accumulation Value are exempt from any Withdrawal Charge." This caps your penalty-free amount at the contract-only RMD, which is much smaller and breaks the strategy.
  • Standard 10% free withdrawal: a separate provision allowing penalty-free withdrawals up to 10% of the contract value annually, for any reason. This STACKS with the RMD waiver — not capped by it.

How MYGA rates connect to the bond market

Insurance carriers invest premiums primarily in investment-grade fixed income (corporate bonds, US Treasuries, agency mortgage-backed securities) — typically 6-10 year duration matched to the average MYGA term. The MYGA crediting rate is calculated as:

MYGA Rate = Carrier's Investment Yield − Carrier Spread (mortality, expenses, profit)

Carrier spreads run 0.75–1.5%. So if A-rated 7-year corporate bonds yield 6.5%, MYGAs from those same carriers can credibly offer 5.0–5.75%. Top-of-market MYGAs (like 5.85%+ at this writing) come from carriers willing to accept a thinner spread to win deposits.

When the 10-year Treasury falls (Fed cuts), corporate bond yields follow with a 1-3 month lag, and MYGA crediting rates compress within 3-9 months as new business is priced off the new yield curve. Locked-in rates on existing contracts stay locked — that's the guarantee.

§1035 exchange vs IRA-to-IRA transfer (the tax-free swap)

Two different mechanisms with the same outcome:

  • §1035 Exchange (non-qualified): Internal Revenue Code §1035(a) allows the tax-free exchange of one annuity contract for another, provided the owner and annuitant remain the same. Cost basis carries over; no gain recognized. Used for non-qualified annuities held outside an IRA.
  • IRA-to-IRA Transfer (qualified): A direct trustee-to-trustee transfer between two IRA custodians. Not technically a 1035 exchange (because the IRA wrapper, not the annuity, is the qualified vehicle), but achieves the same tax-free, penalty-free movement. Governed by IRC §408. Most carriers process this with a single transfer form.

For our RMD strategy, the MYGA is almost always inside an IRA, so the relevant mechanism is the IRA-to-IRA transfer. People (including insurance professionals) often informally call it a "1035 exchange" anyway — technically inaccurate but the practical execution is identical.

The cost-of-wrong-bucket math (the calculator's number)

The "$X cost over 15 years" figure in the calculator uses this formula:

Cost = (Down-year probability × 15 years) × (RMD × Drop% + RMD × ((1+r)^10 − 1))

Decomposed:

  • Down-year probability × 15 years = expected count of down years (historical 25% × 15 = 3.75)
  • RMD × Drop% = immediate loss on the down-year liquidation (recovery to even on the dollars sold)
  • RMD × ((1+r)^10 − 1) = compound growth lost on each $RMD that would have stayed invested for the avg 10 remaining years at avg 7% real return

The 7% return assumption is conservative for equity allocations — long-term S&P 500 real return averages ~7% after inflation. Avg 10-year remaining-life weighting is a simplification (early down years lose more compound, late down years lose less; net averages out roughly to 10 years).

Why historical down-year base rates differ across sources

You'll see "20%", "25%", or "27%" cited as the historical S&P down-year base rate depending on the time window. We use ~25-27% because:

  • 1928–2024 calendar-year total returns (with dividends reinvested): 27 of 97 years were negative = 27.8%
  • 1950–2024: 18 of 75 = 24.0%
  • 2000–2024: 6 of 25 = 24.0% (matches our chart 1 actuals)

The probability math (1 − 0.73^15 ≈ 99%) uses the conservative 27% rate.

12."What about a CD?" — the honest yield comparison inside an IRA

A reasonable question we hear constantly: "Why not just use a CD?" Here's the honest answer that most annuity articles skip.

CDs are great — but they don't really fit inside a tax-qualified retirement account. Inside a 401(k), CDs are essentially never an option. Inside an IRA at a brokerage (Fidelity/Schwab/Vanguard), you can buy "brokered CDs," but these are middleman products with less variety, less yield, and shorter lock-in horizons than the bank CDs you'd buy directly outside an IRA.

So the real comparison isn't "MYGA vs the best CD in the country." It's "MYGA vs what's actually available inside the IRA where your RMD money lives." Here's that comparison on $100,000 over 5 years:

What $100K Earns Over 5 Years — IRA-internal yield comparison
$100K over 5 years inside an IRA. Money market $21,665. Treasury bills $23,430. Brokered CD $27,628. 5-year MYGA $30,696. Locked at issue, no price risk, RMD waiver baked in.

What the deltas look like in plain dollars:

The honest framing: a MYGA isn't a magical product. It's just the highest-yielding contractually-guaranteed fixed-income option you can put inside an IRA right now. If MYGA rates drop back to 3% in 2027-2028 (which they likely will when the Fed cuts more), the case weakens — at that point money market or short Treasuries might be the smarter "RMD bucket." Today, with MYGAs at 5.4-6.0%, the spread vs the IRA-internal alternatives is real and worth capturing.

For 401(k) money specifically: MYGAs aren't typically available inside a 401(k). To use this strategy, you'd need to roll the 401(k) to an IRA first — which is a separate decision worth thinking through (it also unlocks better fund choices, lower fees, and aggregable RMDs). We can walk through that conversation when you call.

13.The active alternative — what I call "gardening"

There's a totally different way to solve this problem that doesn't involve a MYGA at all. I call it "gardening" — and for some retirees it's the better answer. Worth understanding both approaches honestly so you can pick the right one for you.

What "gardening" actually means

The gardening strategy is simple in concept, hard in execution:

  1. When stocks are HIGH (you sense the market is frothy or overvalued), sell some shares well in advance of when you'll need the RMD. Move the proceeds to cash inside the IRA.
  2. Hold that cash in Fidelity's money market (SPAXX ~4.0%) or short Treasuries (~4.2-4.4%). Use it to fund your RMDs.
  3. When stocks CRASH — and they will — that becomes your "buying opportunity." You don't have to touch the equity portfolio because the cash bucket is paying the RMD. Better yet: any excess cash you've built up gets deployed into stocks at depressed prices.
  4. The discipline: sell winners when nobody wants to (everyone's euphoric at highs), buy losers when nobody wants to (everyone's panicking at lows). The MYGA strategy is automated. Gardening is active.

Gardening is essentially a two-fund glide path with tactical rebalancing: equities for growth, cash for RMD funding, with active harvesting when valuations look stretched and aggressive re-entry when they crater. Done well, it can outperform the MYGA strategy because the cash slice doesn't just sit at 4% — it gets redeployed into stocks at the bottom for the recovery upside.

MYGA vs Gardening — head to head

DimensionMYGA RMD StrategyGardening Strategy
Yield on parked dollars5.5% locked at issue~4.0-4.5% floating (depends on Fed)
Upside potentialCapped at the locked rateCash gets redeployed into stocks at lows — significant upside on recovery
Discipline requiredZero — buy it, set it, forget itHigh — must sell winners when euphoric, buy losers when panicked
Skill requiredNoneSignificant — reading market sentiment, sizing entries/exits, tax-aware rebalancing
Behavioral riskEliminatedHuge — most investors fail to buy at bottoms (paralyzed by fear) and fail to sell at tops (hate giving up gains)
Time commitment~30 min once every 3-5 yearsOngoing — monthly portfolio reviews, rate watching, harvest decisions
Best outcome scenario5.5% guaranteed yield. Predictable. Sleep-at-night easy.If you nail the timing — outperforms by 2-3% annualized AND your equity sleeve compounds bigger after recovery.
Worst outcome scenarioYou give up 1-2% of upside if rates surge or markets ripYou sell at the wrong time, hold cash too long, or panic-sell at the bottom — underperforms even the simple "do nothing" portfolio

Which is better? Honestly, it depends.

Gardening wins if you are:

MYGA wins if you are:

The honest summary: a disciplined investor with skill and time can probably outperform the MYGA strategy through gardening. The catch is that most retirees aren't that investor, and the cost of getting gardening wrong is bigger than the gain from getting MYGA right. The MYGA strategy is the "default that wins most of the time without thinking." Gardening is the "advanced move that wins more if you're actually good at it."

There's also a hybrid version many retirees end up doing: anchor a slice in a MYGA (the boring, guaranteed bucket) and garden the rest. Gets the guaranteed yield on part of the portfolio while preserving optionality on the equity side. That's actually what most of our wealthier clients end up doing.

14.The bottom line

The strategy in one sentence:

Put 10–20% of your traditional IRA in a MYGA (or a small ladder of MYGAs), source your RMDs from it in down years, source your RMDs from the market in up years. The carrier eats the sequence-of-returns risk on the buffered slice.

Why this matters:

If this resonates and you want to run the math on your specific situation, the calculator does it in real time:

Calculator

Quantify your number

Plug in your IRA, age, and the MYGA size you're considering. See your year-by-year mechanics and the 15-year cost of not having a buffer.

Run the calculator → Or call · 213-414-2808