CD Rate History 2010-2026 — 16 Years of Rates and What They Teach
TL;DR
From 2010 to 2026, top-tier 5-year CD rates ranged from 0.95% (mid-2021) to 5.00% (early 2024). The 2010-2021 famine taught a generation of savers that CDs do not pay; the 2022-2026 spike has reminded them that they do. As of mid-2026, the best 5-year CD rates sit around 4.55%, off the peak but still well above the 16-year average of 1.85%. The historical lesson: when 5-year rates are above 4%, lock some of your conservative allocation.
16 years of 5-year CD rates (top-tier online banks)
| Year | Top-tier 5-yr CD | Fed Funds (avg) | 10-yr Treasury (avg) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2.80% | 0.13% | 3.22% | Post-GFC recovery |
| 2011 | 2.30% | 0.10% | 2.78% | Operation Twist |
| 2012 | 1.85% | 0.14% | 1.80% | QE3 begins |
| 2013 | 1.75% | 0.11% | 2.35% | Taper tantrum |
| 2014 | 2.25% | 0.09% | 2.54% | QE ends |
| 2015 | 2.25% | 0.13% | 2.14% | First Fed hike Dec |
| 2016 | 2.25% | 0.39% | 1.84% | One hike |
| 2017 | 2.45% | 1.00% | 2.33% | Three hikes |
| 2018 | 3.10% | 1.83% | 2.91% | Four hikes |
| 2019 | 2.85% | 2.16% | 2.14% | Three cuts H2 |
| 2020 | 1.55% | 0.38% | 0.89% | COVID emergency cuts |
| 2021 | 1.00% | 0.08% | 1.45% | Trough year |
| 2022 | 3.50% | 1.68% | 2.95% | Hiking cycle begins |
| 2023 | 4.85% | 5.02% | 3.96% | Cycle peak |
| 2024 | 5.00% | 5.27% | 4.21% | Peak year |
| 2025 | 4.75% | 4.83% | 4.15% | First cuts |
| 2026 (YTD) | 4.55% | 4.45% | 4.05% | Slow easing |
Source: aggregated from Bankrate national tracker, FRED Fed Funds and Treasury data, and top online direct bank rate sheets. National-average CD rates are materially lower than top-tier rates — the spread is typically 100 to 300 bps in any given year.
The four regimes
Regime 1: Post-GFC famine (2010-2015)
Fed Funds at zero, 10-year Treasury falling to 1.80 percent. Top 5-year CDs paid 1.75 to 2.85 percent. The era taught savers that holding cash and CDs cost real purchasing power because inflation typically ran 1.5 to 2.5 percent. Many retirees moved into bonds and equities in search of yield, often at the wrong moments.
Regime 2: First normalization (2016-2019)
Fed hiked nine times from December 2015 to December 2018. 5-year CDs climbed from 2.25 to 3.10 percent. Then the Fed reversed in 2019 with three cuts as the curve inverted. Savers who locked 5-year CDs in late 2018 at 3.10 percent felt vindicated for the next three years.
Regime 3: COVID floor (2020-2021)
Emergency rate cuts to zero. Top 5-year CDs collapsed to 1.00 percent by mid-2021. National average sat at 0.30 to 0.40 percent. This was the worst CD rate environment in the modern era. Anyone with maturing CDs in 2021 faced reinvestment at one-third the rate they had been earning.
Regime 4: The 2022-2024 spike (2022-present)
Fed hiked from 0 to 5.25-5.50 percent in 18 months. 5-year CD rates jumped from 1.00 percent to 5.00 percent. The hiking cycle ended in mid-2023 and the Fed began slow cuts in late 2024. As of mid-2026, top 5-year rates have eased to 4.55 percent.
What 16 years teaches about rate-cycle timing
Lesson 1: Rate peaks are short
The 5.00 percent top-tier 5-year CD was available for roughly 6 months in late 2023 and early 2024. The 4.85 percent prior peak in 2018 was available for roughly 5 months. If you wait for the exact peak, you usually miss it. Locking within 25 bps of the peak captures most of the cycle benefit.
Lesson 2: The famine returns
2010-2015 famine. 2020-2021 famine. The famines are real and they last years. Locking 5-year CDs during a high-rate window protects you against the next famine.
Lesson 3: National averages mislead
The Bankrate national average for 5-year CDs is typically 100 to 300 bps below the top online direct bank rate. A saver who used only their existing bank's rate sheet over the 2010-2026 period left tens of thousands of dollars on the table. Shopping rates matters at every cycle position.
Lesson 4: The curve inverts before recessions
In 2019 and again in 2023-2024, the 1-year CD yielded more than the 5-year. The inversion preceded Fed cuts in both cases. Inversion is the market's warning that locking long is about to become very valuable.
Lesson 5: MYGA premiums are stable
MYGA rates over the same 2010-2026 period have run consistently 80 to 130 bps above the best comparable CD. The premium does not collapse in low-rate environments. In 2021, the best 5-year CD was 1.00 percent; the best 5-year MYGA was 2.15 percent — more than double on the same risk profile.
Why locking matters now
As of mid-2026, the futures market is pricing in roughly 50 bps of Fed cuts over the next 12 months. If that materializes, the 4.55 percent 5-year CD available today becomes the 4.00 to 4.10 percent 5-year CD a year from now. Locking today captures 55 bps of yield differential for the next 5 years.
On $250,000 over 5 years, that 55 bps is roughly $8,500 of additional interest versus rolling 1-year CDs into a falling-rate environment. The math holds whether the cuts come on schedule or not — what matters is that the asymmetry favors locking when rates are above the long-term average.
Where a MYGA replaces the CD in this analysis
Every rate-cycle lesson above applies more strongly to MYGAs because the MYGA premium over CDs is stable across cycles. Locking a 5-year MYGA at 5.55 percent in mid-2026 captures the same cycle benefit as locking a 5-year CD at 4.55 percent, with 100 bps of additional yield.
For long-horizon conservative money, the MYGA is structurally better-positioned for the next famine because the credited rate is locked for the full contract term with no rate reset risk. See our CD vs MYGA ladder comparison for the full math.
The historical playbook
- When 5-year top-tier CDs are above 4 percent: lock at least 40 percent of conservative allocation for 5 years.
- When 5-year MYGAs are above 5 percent: lock at least 40 percent of conservative allocation for 5 years via MYGA.
- When the curve inverts: extend duration even though it feels backwards. The inversion is the warning.
- When the Fed has paused for 6+ months at a peak: the cycle is closer to end than middle. Lock.
- When Fed cuts have started: any remaining unlocked conservative money should move to the longest comfortable term.
Related guides
- How CD rates behaved in 2008 and 2020 recessions
- Locking CDs when the Fed is cutting
- Positioning CDs when the Fed is hiking
- CD ladder vs bullet strategy
Frequently asked follow-up questions
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Disclosure
This article reflects publicly available CD, savings, and annuity rate information approximate to the date above. Rates change frequently — often weekly. Always confirm current rates directly with the institution before opening, renewing, or transferring. This is general educational content, not a personalized recommendation, solicitation, or offer of any specific product. Hans Goldstein is an independent licensed insurance producer (NPN 20602398) appointed with multiple A-rated carriers in the fixed-annuity market; Goldstein & Co. LLC is not a bank, broker-dealer, or registered investment adviser. CDs are deposit products of FDIC-insured banks or NCUA-insured credit unions; annuities are insurance contracts backed by the issuing carrier and state guaranty associations. FDIC and NCUA insurance limits are typically $250,000 per depositor per institution per ownership category. Tax discussion reflects federal law as of 2026 and is subject to change; consult a tax professional for your situation.